Improving prediction skills is something all punters should aspire to do. The bookmakers are experts in predicting matches, it’s how they make money. The ordinary man could end up being just as versed with practice and, of course, a bit of luck.
There are plenty of factors that should be taken into consideration when betting plans are being hatched. Take football, for example, the most popular sport on the planet and the most bet-on. Football seems pretty easy to make bets on – after all, how hard can it be to figure out who should win a game if you know the teams? Turns out it’s a lot harder than it seems.
Predicting the results of football matches is no simple thing. Football has proven to be an unpredictable sport in which the underdog has just as much of a chance to win as a dominant team. If you’re looking to make money on the sport, you’re going to want to involve some deep analysis.
A lucky guess would win you a football bet every once in a while but you’ll find that’s rarely ever the case. Pro bettors employ statistics when taking to the bookies and the method has been proven as a successful means of predicting games.
Harry Kane has the Highest Percentage of Competitive Goals Scored for England (85.29%) than any Player in History #COYS #ThreeLions #ENG #Euro2020 #CZE https://t.co/UhMmhmmcsm pic.twitter.com/OT2lVGQhMh
— myfootballfacts (@myfootballfacts) June 22, 2021
As mentioned above, there are plenty of things that need considering. Stats such as goal differential, shots on target, total shots, passing accuracy, shot location, possession, aerial duels and goalkeeper save numbers all come into play.
Punters would need to scrape all of this data, and more, when going into bets. It would be in one’s best interest to go as far back as the teams’ last 10 or so games, despite the obvious challenge where time is concerned. Going through 20 games to collect data can be time-consuming but there’s always a chance of it paying off handsomely.
Gathering such information would give you a wholesome picture of team performances and various likelihoods.
Goal expectancy is another important aspect and, fortunately, there are many experts who do this bit of your homework for you, and such information could be found on lots of sports betting websites. The best sportsbooks are replete with betting tips and other pertinent data but it’s also worth studying the shows and pundits covering the sport as match previews can provide the occasional nugget. Expectancy info could be gleaned from a number of sources, making it easier to make an informed bet.
Where matches are played is also a key indicator. Teams are typically stronger while playing on their home ground, even during the absence of fans. Home support has lots of influence on general play but the pandemic took that away for several months.
Betting stats show that home teams are more likely to create scoring chances than the visiting team. Home advantage should always be taken into consideration when you’re looking to bet on football. Major European finals take place on neutral grounds, making it harder to predict where the advantage will come from. But, for the most part, home and away stats could be perused.
Team rosters are, of course, what most people look at. The team with the better players is the most likely to win in every situation. Players make teams and squads boasting the better players at every position are always likely to trounce an opponent. As mentioned above, the underdog always has a chance, however.
Manchester City is considered to have one of the best rosters in Europe. They proved to be the best team in the Premier League last season as they stormed to the title but, come Champions League Final time, they fell to Chelsea by a one-goal margin. The Blues also have an impressive roster of players but City’s were considered to be better. More often than not, however, better players bring better results. In City’s case, head coach Pep Guardiola was criticized for putting the wrong team out.
“I decided the decision, to have quality players. Gundogan played many years in this position,” Guardiola explained after the loss. “To have speed, to find the small players, the quality, the brilliant players, inside, in the middle and between the lines. This was the decision. I don’t know – the decisions I made, the players did everything to try to win the game.”
“I expected Fernandinho in the line-up. He chose a very offensive, technical line-up, very hard to steal the ball and recover the ball. Everything else we pretty much expected,” Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel said.
“I think the game was exceptional, the first time we are here.”
Football games can go either way; that goes for all sports. It’s the sheer unpredictability that makes it one of the most enjoyable activities in the world. Going in blindly, depending on luck, or simply betting on your favorite team is a guaranteed way to lose money.